← Serie A 2016-17 · Wed, Oct 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Guida, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 38% | 33% | 2.61 | fair |
| Pescara win | 33% | 36% | 2.97 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.33 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Andrea Conti · Atalanta BC |
| 27' | 🟨 | Abdoulay Konko · Atalanta BC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Gastón Brugman · Pescara |
| 60' | ⚽ | Mattia Caldara · Atalanta BC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Hugo Campagnaro · Pescara |
| 75' | 🟨 | Cristiano Biraghi · Pescara |
| 84' | 🟨 | Roberto Gagliardini · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 13 |
| 0 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 22 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pescara | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia |
| coach days | 848.00 | 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1361.16 | 1524.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.95 | 35.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.33 | 51.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.77 |
| league points | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.74 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.90 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | -1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |