← Serie A 2016-17 · Wed, Oct 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Celi Domenico, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 65% | 66% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.63 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 14% | 13% | 6.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Keita Baldé · SS Lazio |
| 22' | 🟨 | Luca Ceppitelli · Cagliari Calcio |
| 23' | ⚽ (pen) | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 28' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 30' | 🟨 | Wallace · SS Lazio |
| 42' | 🟨 | Keita Baldé · SS Lazio |
| 42' | 🟨 | Panagiotis Tachtsidis · Cagliari Calcio |
| 79' | ⚽ | Felipe Anderson · SS Lazio |
| 80' | 🟨 | Daniele Dessena · Cagliari Calcio |
| 87' | ⚽ (og) | Wallace · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 14 |
| 12 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 6 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.53 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 208.00 | 513.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -6.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 10.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.92 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1627.15 | 1484.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.52 | 18.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.67 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.11 | 58.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| league points | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -11.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | -1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.46 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |