← Serie A 2016-17 · Wed, Oct 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Gavillucci, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 78% | 78% | 1.26 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 16% | 6.55 | value: +6% |
| Crotone win | 7% | 6% | 13.86 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Diego Falcinelli · Crotone |
| 50' | 🟨 | Adrian Stoian · Crotone |
| 75' | 🟨 | Federico Ceccherini · Crotone |
| 85' | ⚽ | Davide Astori · ACF Fiorentina |
| 87' | 🟨 | Carlos Salcedo · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 26 | Shots | 4 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 14 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days | 1608.00 | 117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1667.86 | 1429.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.44 | -37.37 |
| eye test v1 | 1.63 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 54.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | — |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| league points | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.86 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 2.78 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.82 | -1.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.88 | -1.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |