← Serie A 2016-17 · Wed, Oct 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabrizio Pasqua, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chievo win | 45% | 47% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 25% | 3.21 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 24% | 28% | 4.02 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | ⚽ | Erick Pulgar · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ádám Nagy · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 70' | ⚽ (og) | Ibrahima Mbaye · Chievo |
| 83' | 🟨 | Filip Helander · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 85' | 🟨 | Simone Verdi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Umar Sadiq · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 756.00 | 391.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1557.88 | 1497.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.18 | 14.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.22 | 58.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.80 |
| league points | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.56 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |