← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 37% | 32% | 2.62 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.12 | fair |
| Chievo win | 31% | 39% | 3.15 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Bellusci · Empoli |
| 21' | 🟨 | José Mauri · Empoli |
| 44' | 🟨 | Lucas Castro · Chievo |
| 50' | 🟨 | Valter Birsa · Chievo |
| 70' | 🟨 | Manuel Pucciarelli · Empoli |
| 77' | 🟨 | Nicola Rigoni · Chievo |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lucas Castro · Chievo |
| 80' | 🟥 | Lucas Castro · Chievo |
| 85' | 🟨 | Massimo Gobbi · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 28 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 114.00 | 753.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1473.86 | 1558.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.91 | 8.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.88 | 3.75 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.81 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |