← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 42% | 41% | 2.35 | fair |
| Atalanta BC win | 29% | 32% | 3.35 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Andrea Masiello · Atalanta BC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Abdoulay Konko · Atalanta BC |
| 50' | ⚽ | Éder · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 61' | 🟨 | Éder · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Mauricio Pinilla · Atalanta BC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Mauricio Pinilla · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 19 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | FC Internazionale Milano |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia |
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 144.00 | 722.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 3.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1514.40 | 1589.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.97 | -29.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.62 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| league points | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.88 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |