← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Tagliavento, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 39% | 30% | 2.52 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 32% | 41% | 3.02 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Luis Muriel · Sampdoria |
| 24' | ⚽ | Luca Rigoni · Genoa CFC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mattia Perin · Genoa CFC |
| 47' | ⚽ (og) | Armando Izzo · Sampdoria |
| 49' | 🟨 | Karol Linetty · Sampdoria |
| 56' | 🟨 | Lucas Orbán · Genoa CFC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Diego Laxalt · Genoa CFC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Christian Puggioni · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 113.00 | 143.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1480.41 | 1566.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.41 | -7.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.75 | 50.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.83 |
| league points | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.13 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.51 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |