← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicola Rizzoli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 52% | 57% | 1.88 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 28% | 20% | 3.45 | fair |
| AC Milan win | 20% | 23% | 5.00 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bonucci · Juventus FC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Miralem Pjanić · Juventus FC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Juraj Kucka · AC Milan |
| 50' | 🟨 | Gianluigi Donnarumma · AC Milan |
| 65' | ⚽ | Manuel Locatelli · AC Milan |
| 76' | 🟨 | Dani Alves · Juventus FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Manuel Locatelli · AC Milan |
| 83' | 🟨 | Andrea Poli · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 22 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 143.00 | 844.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 4.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1637.90 | 1890.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.55 | -6.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | 1.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.25 | 53.88 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| league points | 16.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 11.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | 1.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.40 |
| state index | 0.93 | 1.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |