← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca J. Pairetto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 54% | 53% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Empoli win | 18% | 20% | 5.34 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Darko Lazović · Genoa CFC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Darko Lazović · Genoa CFC |
| 34' | 🟥 | Darko Lazović · Genoa CFC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Rade Krunić · Empoli |
| 49' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Bellusci · Empoli |
| 60' | 🟨 | Riccardo Saponara · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andrés Tello · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 2 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 137.00 | 107.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1570.53 | 1469.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.37 | -13.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.83 | 49.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| league points | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | — |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 0.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.33 | 3.14 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.32 | -0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |