← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Damato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 57% | 52% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.86 | value: +9% |
| Atalanta BC win | 17% | 19% | 5.68 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Mattia Caldara · Atalanta BC |
| 14' | 🟨 | Milan Badelj · ACF Fiorentina |
| 48' | 🟨 | Boukary Dramé · Atalanta BC |
| 67' | 🟨 | Davide Astori · ACF Fiorentina |
| 71' | 🟨 | Matías Vecino · ACF Fiorentina |
| 79' | 🟨 | Roberto Gagliardini · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 1598.00 | 137.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1649.16 | 1509.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.38 | 12.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.83 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.12 | 53.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| league points | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.65 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.63 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.56 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.95 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |