← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 38% | 35% | 2.56 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.15 | value: +8% |
| Chievo win | 31% | 31% | 3.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Dario Dainelli · Chievo |
| 35' | 🟨 | Manuel Locatelli · AC Milan |
| 45' | ⚽ | Juraj Kucka · AC Milan |
| 46' | ⚽ | M'Baye Niang · AC Milan |
| 75' | 🟨 | Gabriel Paletta · AC Milan |
| 76' | ⚽ | Valter Birsa · Chievo |
| 78' | 🟨 | Riccardo Meggiorini · Chievo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Cacciatore · Chievo |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Dario Dainelli · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 746.00 | 137.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1574.10 | 1622.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.12 | 18.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 63.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| league points | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.57 | 3.86 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |