← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Celi Domenico, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pescara win | 38% | 48% | 2.58 | value: +24% |
| Sampdoria win | 34% | 25% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ (og) | Hugo Campagnaro · Sampdoria |
| 23' | ⚽ | Hugo Campagnaro · Pescara |
| 30' | 🟨 | Andrea Coda · Pescara |
| 39' | 🟨 | Alberto Aquilani · Pescara |
| 45' | 🟨 | Andrea Coda · Pescara |
| 45' | 🟥 | Andrea Coda · Pescara |
| 76' | 🟨 | Emiliano Viviano · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 22 |
| 7 | On target | 9 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pescara | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia |
| coach days | 837.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1368.62 | 1481.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.16 | -36.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.43 | 52.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.58 |
| league points | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.71 | 4.43 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.96 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |