← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Gavillucci, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 80% | 80% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 13% | 6.98 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 6% | 7% | 16.80 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Jakub Jankto · Udinese Calcio |
| 43' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Molla Wagué · Udinese Calcio |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Stipe Perica · Udinese Calcio |
| 66' | 🟨 | Hernanes · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 837.00 | 14.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.05 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1889.73 | 1458.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.72 | -9.33 |
| eye test v1 | 1.80 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.14 | 59.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| league points | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 19.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.57 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.61 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.29 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 10.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 24.27 |
| state index | 1.78 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -1.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |