← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 40% | 40% | 2.45 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 30% | 27% | 3.22 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.32 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Iago Falque · Torino FC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Leandro Castán · Torino FC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Carlos Sánchez · ACF Fiorentina |
| 60' | ⚽ | Marco Benassi · Torino FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Carlos Salcedo · ACF Fiorentina |
| 84' | ⚽ | Khouma Babacar · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| coach days | 93.00 | 1584.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1557.69 | 1660.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.99 | 13.00 |
| eye test v1 | 1.07 | 0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 35.83 | 49.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.75 |
| league points | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | — |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | 1.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.33 | 4.57 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.44 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |