← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 73% | 74% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 17% | 5.18 | fair |
| Empoli win | 9% | 9% | 11.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 50' | 🟨 | Hernanes · Juventus FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Manuel Pasqual · Empoli |
| 65' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 67' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | José Mauri · Empoli |
| 70' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 26 |
| 3 | On target | 11 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 21 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 93.00 | 824.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 4.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1473.61 | 1885.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.31 | -3.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | 1.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.00 | 50.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| league points | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | 1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.17 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.20 |
| state index | -0.62 | 1.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.04 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |