← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Piero Giacomelli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 60% | 56% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.83 | fair |
| Crotone win | 14% | 20% | 6.89 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Davide Di Gennaro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 43' | 🟨 | Raffaele Palladino · Crotone |
| 48' | 🟨 | Aleandro Rosi · Crotone |
| 56' | ⚽ | Simone Padoin · Cagliari Calcio |
| 75' | 🟨 | Marcus Rohdén · Crotone |
| 90' | 🟨 | Noe Dussenne · Crotone |
| 90' | ⚽ | Adrian Stoian · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 22 |
| 9 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 14 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Sant'Elia |
| coach days | 489.00 | 93.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1473.13 | 1445.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.08 | -45.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.17 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | — |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| league points | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | — |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 0.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | -1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.17 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.08 | -1.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -1.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | — |