← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 37% | 38% | 2.62 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 32% | 28% | 3.11 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.15 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Santiago Gentiletti · Genoa CFC |
| 18' | 🟨 | Miguel Veloso · Genoa CFC |
| 25' | 🟨 | Tomás Rincón · Genoa CFC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Daniele Gastaldello · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 43' | 🟥 | Daniele Gastaldello · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 43' | 🟨 | Giovanni Simeone · Genoa CFC |
| 77' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · Genoa CFC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Santiago Gentiletti · Genoa CFC |
| 85' | 🟥 | Santiago Gentiletti · Genoa CFC |
| 87' | 🟥 | Blerim Džemaili · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 22 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| coach days | 367.00 | 123.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1501.05 | 1560.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.79 | 10.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.83 | 43.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| league points | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.67 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.11 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |