← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carmine Russo, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 40% | 40% | 2.48 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 32% | 31% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Thomas Heurtaux · Udinese Calcio |
| 28' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 40' | 🟨 | Felipe · Udinese Calcio |
| 54' | ⚽ | Keita Baldé · SS Lazio |
| 61' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 84' | 🟨 | Patric · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 4 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days | 0.00 | 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 3.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1472.02 | 1618.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.17 | -5.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.83 | 48.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.82 |
| league points | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.60 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.10 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.83 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.27 | — |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.39 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |