← Serie A 2016-17 · Mon, Sep 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 50% | 45% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.48 | fair |
| Crotone win | 22% | 30% | 4.54 | value: +35% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Andrea Petagna · Atalanta BC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Andrea Masiello · Atalanta BC |
| 40' | ⚽ | Jasmin Kurtić · Atalanta BC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Papu Gómez · Atalanta BC |
| 62' | 🟥 | Franck Kessié · Atalanta BC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Aleksandăr Tonev · Crotone |
| 71' | 🟨 | Federico Ceccherini · Crotone |
| 81' | 🟨 | Leonardo Capezzi · Crotone |
| 86' | ⚽ | Simy · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 21 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Ezio Scida |
| coach days | 87.00 | 117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1462.57 | 1476.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.43 | -36.56 |
| eye test v1 | -1.24 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 48.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | — | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| league points | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.41 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | -1.11 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.05 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 0.80 |