← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 79% | 74% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 18% | 6.56 | value: +20% |
| Palermo win | 6% | 8% | 15.21 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bonucci · Juventus FC |
| 6' | 🟨 | Edoardo Goldaniga · Palermo |
| 9' | 🟨 | Mario Mandžukić · Juventus FC |
| 20' | 🟨 | Giancarlo González · Palermo |
| 27' | 🟨 | Dani Alves · Juventus FC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Haitam Aleesami · Palermo |
| 49' | ⚽ (og) | Edoardo Goldaniga · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Palermo | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Renzo Barbera |
| coach days | 23.00 | 816.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 4.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1485.91 | 1883.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.05 | -2.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | 1.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.00 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | — |
| league points | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.00 | 11.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | 1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.80 |
| state index | -0.34 | 1.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |