← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 70% | 66% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 27% | 5.00 | value: +36% |
| Chievo win | 10% | 6% | 9.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Massimo Gobbi · Chievo |
| 14' | 🟨 | Kalidou Koulibaly · SSC Napoli |
| 24' | ⚽ | Manolo Gabbiadini · SSC Napoli |
| 39' | ⚽ | Marek Hamšík · SSC Napoli |
| 43' | 🟨 | Raúl Albiol · SSC Napoli |
| 44' | 🟨 | Boštjan Cesar · Chievo |
| 54' | 🟨 | Dario Dainelli · Chievo |
| 76' | 🟨 | Lucas Castro · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days | 481.00 | 724.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.71 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1754.21 | 1570.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.52 | 30.43 |
| eye test v1 | 1.20 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.40 | 65.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.11 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.28 | — |
| state index | 1.25 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |