← Serie A 2016-17 · Wed, Sep 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 40% | 46% | 2.47 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.23 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 30% | 29% | 3.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Udinese Calcio |
| 30' | ⚽ | Khouma Babacar · ACF Fiorentina |
| 38' | 🟨 | Thomas Heurtaux · Udinese Calcio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Danilo · Udinese Calcio |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Federico Bernardeschi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 53' | 🟨 | Hrvoje Milić · ACF Fiorentina |
| 64' | 🟨 | Nenad Tomović · ACF Fiorentina |
| 83' | 🟨 | Sebastien De Maio · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.00 |
| coach days |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| 82.00 |
| 1573.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1473.42 | 1657.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.54 | 31.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 45.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| league points | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.75 | 82.25 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.00 | 51.75 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.74 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.25 | 2.75 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 24.27 | — |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.70 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |