← Serie A 2016-17 · Wed, Sep 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Banti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 40% | 43% | 2.48 | value: +7% |
| Pescara win | 31% | 30% | 3.19 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Afriyie Acquah · Torino FC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Michele Fornasier · Pescara |
| 45' | 🟨 | Afriyie Acquah · Torino FC |
| 45' | 🟥 | Afriyie Acquah · Torino FC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Josef Martínez · Torino FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Cristiano Biraghi · Pescara |
| 57' | 🟨 | Gianluca Caprari · Pescara |
| 78' | 🟥 | Giuseppe Vives · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Hart · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pescara | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| coach days |
| venue | Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia |
| 813.00 |
| 82.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1369.11 | 1538.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.81 | -16.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 1.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 36.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| league points | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 79.25 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 48.50 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.25 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.75 |
| state index | -0.74 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |