← Serie A 2016-17 · Wed, Sep 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 81% | 85% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 10% | 7.40 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 5% | 5% | 18.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Davide Di Gennaro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 14' | ⚽ | Daniele Rugani · Juventus FC |
| 33' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
| 39' | ⚽ | Dani Alves · Juventus FC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Luca Bittante · Cagliari Calcio |
| 64' | 🟨 | Daniele Rugani · Juventus FC |
| 83' | ⚽ (og) | Luca Ceppitelli · Juventus FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gianni Munari · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 2 |
| 13 | On target | 0 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| coach days |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| 813.00 |
| 478.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.33 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1880.85 | 1466.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.96 | 16.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.75 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| league points | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.25 | 76.25 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.50 | 43.25 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.20 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.36 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.25 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.25 | 5.50 |
| state index | 1.60 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |