← Serie A 2016-17 · Wed, Sep 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Damato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 56% | 55% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.93 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 19% | 22% | 5.02 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Lucas Orbán · Genoa CFC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Elseid Hysaj · SSC Napoli |
| 53' | 🟨 | Tomás Rincón · Genoa CFC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Olivier Ntcham · Genoa CFC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Giovanni Simeone · Genoa CFC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jorginho · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| coach days |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| 112.00 |
| 478.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 3.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1563.06 | 1757.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.65 | 15.93 |
| eye test v1 | 1.04 | 1.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.67 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.50 |
| league points | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.33 | 89.75 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.67 | 59.50 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 22.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.31 | 2.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.33 | 7.25 |
| squad age | — | 25.65 |
| state index | 0.57 | 1.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |