← Serie A 2016-17 · Wed, Sep 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Ghersini, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 62% | 63% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.29 | fair |
| Palermo win | 15% | 15% | 6.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 70' | 🟨 | Franck Kessié · Atalanta BC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Alessandro Diamanti · Palermo |
| 79' | 🟨 | Rafael Tolói · Atalanta BC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Thiago Cionek · Palermo |
| 89' | ⚽ | Ilija Nestorovski · Palermo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andrea Masiello · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| coach days |
| venue | Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia |
| 112.00 |
| 20.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1489.05 | 1473.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.01 | -1.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -0.79 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.50 | 46.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.50 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.75 | 45.25 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | — |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -10.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.98 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.50 | 5.25 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.75 | 2.75 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |