← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Sep 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca J. Pairetto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 41% | 41% | 2.41 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 38% | 3.16 | value: +19% |
| Chievo win | 28% | 21% | 3.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Udinese Calcio |
| 33' | 🟨 | Ivan Radovanović · Chievo |
| 36' | 🟨 | Boštjan Cesar · Chievo |
| 39' | 🟨 | Emil Hallfreðsson · Udinese Calcio |
| 74' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Cacciatore · Chievo |
| 78' | 🟨 | Panagiotis Kone · Udinese Calcio |
| 82' | ⚽ | Lucas Castro · Chievo |
| 88' | 🟨 | Stipe Perica · Udinese Calcio |
| 89' | 🟨 | Dario Dainelli · Chievo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Fabrizio Cacciatore · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| coach days |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| 79.00 |
| 718.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1483.22 | 1550.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.04 | 1.08 |
| eye test v1 | -1.01 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 67.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | — |
| league points | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.33 | 77.33 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.33 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.56 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| squad age | 24.27 | — |
| state index | -0.08 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.74 | -0.56 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |