← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Sep 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Chiffi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 58% | 51% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.86 | value: +7% |
| Empoli win | 17% | 21% | 5.87 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Andrés Tello · Empoli |
| 11' | 🟨 | Cristian Molinaro · Torino FC |
| 25' | 🟨 | Lucas Boyé · Torino FC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Mirko Valdifiori · Torino FC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Bellusci · Empoli |
| 76' | 🟨 | Assane Dioussé · Empoli |
| 78' | 🟨 | Daniele Baselli · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| coach days | 79.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1542.01 | 1490.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.14 | -13.19 |
| eye test v1 | 1.39 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 38.00 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| league points | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.67 | 80.33 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.67 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | — |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.33 | 3.67 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |