← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Sep 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Gavillucci, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 40% | 43% | 2.45 | value: +6% |
| Genoa CFC win | 30% | 25% | 3.24 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 58' | 🟨 | Leonardo Pavoletti · Genoa CFC |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Matteo Politano · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 66' | ⚽ | Grégoire Defrel · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 76' | 🟨 | Lucas Orbán · Genoa CFC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Miguel Veloso · Genoa CFC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Miguel Veloso · Genoa CFC |
| 86' | 🟥 | Miguel Veloso · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 932.00 | 109.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1614.89 | 1573.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.59 | 23.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | 1.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.50 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | — |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.50 | 83.50 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 63.00 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | 1.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| state index | 0.31 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |