β Serie A 2016-17 Β· Sun, Sep 18, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Celi Domenico, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo win | 37% | 41% | 2.66 | value: +8% |
| Crotone win | 32% | 29% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | β½ | Marcello Trotta Β· Crotone |
| 45' | π¨ | Leonardo Capezzi Β· Crotone |
| 66' | β½ | Ilija Nestorovski Β· Palermo |
| 71' | π¨ | Lorenzo Crisetig Β· Crotone |
| 81' | π¨ | Edoardo Goldaniga Β· Palermo |
| 88' | π¨ | SiniΕ‘a AnΔelkoviΔ Β· Palermo |
| 90' | π¨ | Claiton Β· Crotone |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 19 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | β | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | β | 2.80 |
| coach days | 79.00 |
| venue | Stadio Ezio Scida |
| 17.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | β | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | β | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | β | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | β | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | β | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | β | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | β | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | β | 0.23 |
| elo | 1468.47 | 1472.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | β | 2.61 |
| eye test v1 | -1.44 | -1.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 52.33 |
| form points (last 5) | β | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | β | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | β | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | β | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | β | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | β | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | β | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.33 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 37.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | β | -13.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | β | 5.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | -1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | β | 1.00 |