← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Sep 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 40% | 34% | 2.43 | fair |
| Atalanta BC win | 30% | 33% | 3.23 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.34 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Marco Borriello · Cagliari Calcio |
| 35' | 🟨 | Fabio Pisacane · Cagliari Calcio |
| 44' | 🟨 | Rafael Tolói · Atalanta BC |
| 48' | 🟨 | Carlos Carmona · Atalanta BC |
| 55' | ⚽ | Marco Sau · Cagliari Calcio |
| 73' | ⚽ | Marco Borriello · Cagliari Calcio |
| 88' | 🟨 | Gianni Munari · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| coach days |
| venue | Sant'Elia |
| 475.00 |
| 109.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1448.95 | 1506.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.96 | 3.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 46.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| league points | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.33 | 82.67 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 53.33 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | 0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |