← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Aug 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sampdoria win | 38% | 35% | 2.55 | fair |
| Atalanta BC win | 31% | 25% | 3.12 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 40% | 3.26 | value: +31% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand