← Serie A 2015-16 · Sun, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Palermo win | 77% | 70% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 17% | 6.56 | value: +10% |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 8% | 13% | 11.89 | value: +60% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.