← Serie A 2015-16 · Sun, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SS Lazio win | 40% | 39% | 2.46 | fair |
| Carpi win | 32% | 31% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 27 | Shots | 16 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.