← Serie A 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Hellas Verona FC win | 45% | 35% | 2.16 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 28% | 21% | 3.54 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 44% | 3.65 | value: +60% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 18 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.