← Serie A 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SS Lazio win | 54% | 66% | 1.83 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 25% | 16% | 3.91 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 21% | 19% | 4.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 10 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 20 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.