← Serie A 2013-14 · Sun, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 58% | 60% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.22 | value: +6% |
| Livorno win | 19% | 15% | 5.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 5 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 19 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 11 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.