← Serie A 2012-13 · Sun, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AC Milan win | 78% | 63% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 21% | 6.80 | value: +46% |
| Siena win | 7% | 16% | 13.50 | value: +116% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 21 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 7 | Corners | 9 |
| 26 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.