← Serie A 2008-09 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AS Roma win | 40% | 34% | 2.40 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
| SS Lazio win | 29% | 38% | 3.40 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 21 |
| 8 | On target | 10 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 25 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 2 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.