← Serie A 2008-09 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 44% | 39% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
| Siena win | 25% | 32% | 3.80 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.