← Serie A 2007-08 · Sun, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Reggina win | 50% | 39% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 39% | 3.10 | value: +21% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 20% | 22% | 5.00 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 3 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 28 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.