← Serie A 2006-07 · Sun, May 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Tagliavento
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 51% | 61% | 1.83 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 43% | 18% | 2.10 | fair |
| Empoli win | 6% | 21% | 17.00 | value: +252% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 12 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.