← Serie A 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Rocchi
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Palermo win | 53% | 36% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.10 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 18% | 40% | 5.50 | value: +122% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.