← Serie A 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Saccani
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SS Lazio win | 40% | 43% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 43% | 2.87 | value: +22% |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 27% | 15% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 19 | Fouls | 28 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.