← Serie A 2006-07 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Bergonzi
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AC Milan win | 72% | 71% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 5.00 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 8% | 10% | 13.00 | value: +33% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 24 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.