← Serie A 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Farina
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 70% | 68% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.50 | value: +4% |
| Siena win | 9% | 9% | 12.00 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 28 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.