← Serie A 2006-07 · Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Giannoccaro
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 39% | 55% | 2.37 | value: +30% ⚠ |
| Draw | 34% | 23% | 2.70 | fair |
| Empoli win | 27% | 22% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 25 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.