← Serie A 2006-07 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Dondarini
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 44% | 42% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 40% | 2.87 | value: +13% |
| Livorno win | 24% | 19% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.