← Serie A 2006-07 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Tagliavento
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Empoli win | 57% | 57% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
| Ascoli win | 16% | 18% | 6.00 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 22 | Fouls | 34 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.