← Serie A 2005-06 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Paparesta
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AC Milan win | 70% | 88% | 1.30 | value: +14% ⚠ |
| Draw | 20% | 7% | 5.00 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 10% | 5% | 9.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.